Portfolio Update - 7/25/10

Before reading, please see the disclaimer in the 'About Me' section.

It has been two weeks since my last post, and we are smack dab in the middle of earnings season.  So far, earnings have been strong, and I expect we will see much of the same this week as we have many large companies reporting this week.

The Wilshire 5000 closed at 11,507.70, up from 11,225.80, or 3.80%, since my post on 7/12/10.  The Wilshire 5000 is now .33% below it's 200-Day Moving Average.  Pretty soon I think we will see the index cross above it's 200-day MA, putting in support, and moving higher through the end of the year.

The Investor's Intelligence Survey was released on Thursday night. This week's reading was 35.6% BULLS, and 35.6% BEARS, for a spread of 0.0%. This is in comparison to a reading of 37.0% BULLS, and 34.8% BEARS, for a spread of 2.2% on July 12th. As I said in my last update, ideally we would see the BEAR percentage cross the BULL percentage, which is exactly what we saw in the reading on 7/13/10, one day after I wrote that.  This is a sign of capitulation in the market, which has been confirmed by some other data that I look at on a regular basis.  As you will notice, we have had a fairly steady rally after that reading.  On 7/13, the Wilshire 5000 closed at 11,411.90, almost 1% lower than where we are now.  The prior week on 7/6 the market closed at 10,683.50 with a BULL reading of 37.0%, and a BEAR reading of 34.8%.

The Volatility Index closed Friday at 23.47, down from 24.98 back on July 12th.

Now for the portfolio...(updated for dividends)
1) Verizon at $28.02, down 8.30% for the year, inclusive of dividends.  Verizon saw a nice pop this week on the back of strong earnings.  Many analysts have been saying on TV this week "would you rather own a Treasury sub-3.%, or Verizon yielding about 7%?  I'll take Verizon."  Welcome to the bandwagon folks. FTR, the recent spinoff, recently closed at $7.43/share, worth about $52.01 to this portfolio currently.

2) AT&T closed at $25.54, down 2.65% for the year, inclusive of dividends.

3) GE closed at $15.71, up by 4.41% for the year, inclusive of dividends.

4) TBT, the doubleshort U.S. Treasury ETF closed at $36.42, down by 26.98% since my buy. 

5) FXP, the doubleshort China ETF, closed at $35.55, down by 18.23% since my buy, and after a 1:5 reverse split.

6) GOOD closed at $17.29, up by 28.42% since my buy, including the reinvestment of dividends. 

7) NLY closed at $17.88, up by 3.80% since my buy, inclusive of a reinvested dividends

8) AAPL closed at $259.94 up by 34.16% since my buy. 

9) January '12 Citigroup Calls closed at $.23, down by 47.73% since my buy.  Still long-term bullish on Citi.

10)  GS closed at $147.38, up by 8.29% since my buy thanks to an SEC settlement, and a strong quarterly report.

Overall, the portfolio is up by 4.31% (-.33% for the DOW Dogs), versus .09% for the Wilshire 5000. The current basket of ten stocks that I am currently invested in, including dividends, is down 1.79% year-to-date. The spread between my performance and the overall market (Wilshire 5000) is at 4.22% outperform.






In a closing note, I would like to update how my trades in SPY and GOOG calls went.  As you know, I had a nice gain in both going into expiration.  Unfortunately, Google unexpectedly missed earnings, and that call spread expired worthless.  Live and learn.  I also ended up having to cover my SPY calls at a $.11 loss, after a couple tough trading days leading into expiration.  Next time, I will be sure to take profits. 

March options have recently become available for trading.  As such, I have recently purchased a block of C $7 calls for $.05.  I am long-term very bullish on Citi, and I am expecting these calls to net me a nice gain in the next 8 months or so.