Sunday, June 20, 2010

Market Update - 6/20/10 It's Been A Long Month!

Before reading, please see the disclaimer in the 'About Me' section.

Sorry folks, it has been exactly one month since my last post.  I was recently married and honeymooning, and was busy with everything involved with that, as well as catching up with what I missed.  I have been following my stocks and the market eagerly over the past few weeks.  If you've had the opportunity, the last few weeks, in my opinion, have been a fantastic time to buy stocks.  Let's get into it....

The Wilshire 5000 closed at 11,668.80, up from 11,170.00, or 4.47%, since my post on 5/20/10. The Wilshire 5000 has now re-crossed above the 200-day moving average 1.42% to the upside.  I called for the market to trend lower in my last post on 5/20, and surely enough lower it went.  We saw a close of 10,951.70 on 6/7/07. 

The Investor's Intelligence Survey was released on Thursday night. This week's reading was 37.0% BULLS, and 32.6% BEARS, for a spread of 4.4%. This is in comparison to a reading of 43.8% BULLS, and 24.7% BEARS, for a spread of 19.1% on May 18th.  In my last post I indicated that my analysis showed that buying opportunities exist when the BULL reading crosses below 40.0%.  According to my analysis, 6/1 was a great time to start the buying, as the BULL reading registered at 39.8%, the second week in a row under 40.0%.  On that date, the Wilshire 5000 closed at 11,184.7, we have since seen an upward move in excess of 4.0% from that date.  While it is possible that we re-test those lows in the time ahead, my longer term outlook suggests that we have seen the start of a new longer-term upturn in the market, and any weakness would result in another buying opportunity.

The Volatility Index closed Friday at 23.79, down from 45.79 back on May 20th.

Now for the portfolio...(forgive me, I have not updated for dividends since April, but will do so for my next addition)
1) Verizon at $29.13, down 10.23% for the year, inclusive of dividends. 

2) AT&T closed at $25.43, down 3.16% for the year, inclusive of dividends.

3) GE closed at $15.95, up by 6.08% for the year, inclusive of dividends.  I see GE's recent move down as another buying sign.

4) TBT, the doubleshort U.S. Treasury ETF closed at $38.65, down by 22.51% since my buy. 

5) FXP, the doubleshort China ETF, closed at $38.89, down by 10.55% since my buy, and after a 1:5 reverse split.

6) GOOD closed at $16.62, up by 22.95% since my buy, including the reinvestment of a dividends.  Told 'ya this one was a gift at $14....

7) NLY closed at $17.89, up by 4.07% since my buy, inclusive of a reinvested dividends

8) AAPL closed at $274.07 up by 41.46% since my buy. 

9) January '12 Citigroup Calls closed at $.27, down by 38.64% since my buy.  Still long-term bullish on Citi.

10)  GS closed at $138.18, up by 1.53% since my buy.

Overall, the portfolio is up by 4.79% (-2.45% for the DOW Dogs), versus 1.49% for the Wilshire 5000. The current basket of eight stocks that I am currently invested in, including dividends, is down .87% year-to-date. The spread between my performance and the overall market (Wilshire 5000) is at 3.30% outperform.

About Me

DISCLAIMER: I started this blog as a way for people to exchange ideas relating to investing and finance, primarily. I am in no way a professional in these areas, merely a student of the financial world. The thoughts expressed on these pages have no connection to my employer in any way. Anybody reading this blog should do so with caution, exercise their own judgment, and do their own due diligence on any financial undertaking. About Me: I reside in New Jersey with my wife and my two dogs. I have a B.S. degree in Accounting with a minor in Finance, as well as an MBA in Accounting. Currently, I am employed as a forensic accountant, and am pursuing my CPA designation. I love the stock market, and picking stocks. I spend a great deal of time analyzing market data, as well as individual names.