TIMBERRRRRRRRRRR!!!! Portfolio Update 5/8/10

Before reading, please see the disclaimer in the 'About Me' section.

The Wilshire 5000 closed at 11,560.00, down from 12,408.90, or 6.84%, since my post on 5/2/10. The Wilshire 5000 is now only 2.04% above it's 200-day moving average. 

The Investor's Intelligence Survey was released on Thursday night. This week's reading was 56.0% BULLS, and 18.7% BEARS, for a spread of 36.0%. This is in comparison to a reading of 54.0% BULLS, and 18.0% BEARS, for a spread of 37.3% on April 27th.  I have not seen levels this high since I started keeping a spreadsheet of data back in December.  It will be interesting to see what next weeks reading comes in at, because I can guarantee it won't be this high on the BULL side.

The Volatility Index closed Friday at 40.95, up from 22.05 back on April 30th. According to my handy chart, we have not seen levels this high since roughly May of 2009, right after the market bottomed in early March of 2009.

Unless you have been living under a rock, or have been hiking in the backwoods of Canada, you know that the market fell off a cliff this week on fears of Europe, the Euro, and whatever other story the media can drum up.  Historically, the 200-day moving average has been a pretty important barometer of where the market can and will go.  It will be interesting to see in the next week or so how things shake out, and whether or not the market breaks this support level.  From what I have been listening to and reading, a correction of 15 - 20% seems like a reasonable possibility.  That would take the market to at least the 10,834 (per the analysis by Van-Eck Tillman).  I would be ok with this, as should everybody else with money on the sidelines.  The fundamentals in America are improving, and the possibility of a Greek failure is way overblown.  Greece has the 28th largest economy in terms of GDP, or as I heard on CNBC the other day, roughly the size of Michigan.



Now for the portfolio...
1) Verizon at $28.19, down 13.13% for the year, inclusive of dividends.  As this stock falls, the yield is only rising.  It's also interesting that this stock has been appearing on my DOW DOGS screen since late last year.  This, along with JNJ, are the only stocks currently appearing on that screen.

2) AT&T closed at $26.22, down .15% for the year, inclusive of dividends.

3) GE closed at $16.88, up by 12.27% for the year, inclusive of dividends.

4) TBT, the doubleshort U.S. Treasury ETF closed at $41.32, down by 17.16% since my buy.

5) FXP, the doubleshort China ETF, closed at $46.31, up by 6.52% since my buy, and after a 1:5 reverse split.

6) GOOD closed at $15.88, up by 17.47% since my buy, including the reinvestment of a dividends.  Good traded down in the $15 range on Thursday and Friday, bringing the yield back close to 10%.  If you got a chance to get in at that level, or if you get a chance in the next week or two, I think it's a gift.

7) NLY closed at $15.80, down by 8.09% since my buy, inclusive of a reinvested dividends

8) AAPL closed at $235.86, up by 21.73% since my buy.  I heard a trader say yesterday it is not outside the realm of possibility that this stock trades down near $200 near term.  That would also be a gift, look out for such an occurrence.

9) January '12 Citigroup Calls closed at $.37, down by 15.91% since my buy.  Should have waited another week or two to buy these, but no regrets here.  I estimate that by January 2012 Citigroup should be earning at least $1 per share, and a stock price of $7.50 puts the PE at 7.5.  This is cheap compared to banks like US Bank, Bank of America, and all the rest.  This is a long-term trade, and something to be patient with.

Overall, the portfolio is up by 6.03% (-.37% for the DOW Dogs), versus 0.54% for the Wilshire 5000. The current basket of eight stocks that I am currently invested in, including dividends, is up 0.43% year-to-date. The spread between my performance and the overall market (Wilshire 5000) has increased to 5.49%.

As of right now, I am still waiting for Goldman Sacks (GS) to trade down to the $135 level.  If it does so, I will most likely be a buyer.  Goldman closed down below $145, which people a lot smarter than I are saying is an important technical level.  We will wait and see.