Thursday, May 20, 2010

Before reading, please see the disclaimer in the 'About Me' section.

The Wilshire 5000 closed at 11,170.00, down from 11,560.00, or 6.84%, since my post on 5/8/10. The Wilshire 5000 has now crossed below the 200-day moving average 2.06% to the downside.  I see this as neutral news, and am looking for the correction to take us a bit lower still.

The Investor's Intelligence Survey was released on Thursday night. This week's reading was 43.8% BULLS, and 24.7% BEARS, for a spread of 19.1%. This is in comparison to a reading of 56.0% BULLS, and 18.7% BEARS, for a spread of 36.0% on May 4th.  I am looking for the BULL reading to cross below 40.0% next week.  Given the chart located here, I would see this as a buying opportunity.

The Volatility Index closed Friday at 45.79, up from 40.95 back on May 8th. This is the third week in a row that we have seen the VIX trade above 35.

Now for the portfolio...
1) Verizon at $27.76, down 14.45% for the year, inclusive of dividends.  As this stock falls, the yield is only rising.  If I were in the business of buying on the way down with this "imaginary portfolio", I would be adding to my position as we speak

2) AT&T closed at $26.00, down .99% for the year, inclusive of dividends.

3) GE closed at $16.26, up by 8.14% for the year, inclusive of dividends.  I see GE's recent move down as another buying sign.

4) TBT, the doubleshort U.S. Treasury ETF closed at $38.81, down by 22.19% since my buy.  Given where we are in the market and the worldwide economy, I suspect the Fed is going to keep rates low for quite some time, thus keeping this ETF down for quite some time.  I will ponder moving out of this position in the time ahead.

5) FXP, the doubleshort China ETF, closed at $48.24, up by 10.96% since my buy, and after a 1:5 reverse split.  I suspect this one is not done moving higher.

6) GOOD closed at $14.63, up by 8.23% since my buy, including the reinvestment of a dividends.  Like I said previously, I think this stock yielding greater than 10% is a gift, and will be buying some in my retirement account in the next week or so.

7) NLY closed at $15.34, down by 10.77% since my buy, inclusive of a reinvested dividends

8) AAPL closed at $237.76 up by 22.71% since my buy.  In more Apple rumor news, some analyst just put a $330 price target on this puppy.  We'll see how that pans out.

9) January '12 Citigroup Calls closed at $.29, down by 34.09% since my buy.  I am still very bullish on Citi, especially since it is now trading well below it's tangible book value.  Historically, this has been a great place to buy.  I am looking for all financials to pop after the European thing settles, and financial reform is passed which brings me to....


10)  GS.  I said a while back I would buy around the $136 level, and I am doing so today with 7 shares at $136.10.  This rounds out my ten slot portfolio, and I am interested to see how I weather the storm in the months ahead.

Overall, the portfolio is up by 2.47% (-2.47% for the DOW Dogs), versus -2.85% for the Wilshire 5000. The current basket of eight stocks that I am currently invested in, including dividends, is down 3.21% year-to-date. The spread between my performance and the overall market (Wilshire 5000) is at 5.32% outperform.

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About Me

DISCLAIMER: I started this blog as a way for people to exchange ideas relating to investing and finance, primarily. I am in no way a professional in these areas, merely a student of the financial world. The thoughts expressed on these pages have no connection to my employer in any way. Anybody reading this blog should do so with caution, exercise their own judgment, and do their own due diligence on any financial undertaking. About Me: I reside in New Jersey with my wife and my two dogs. I have a B.S. degree in Accounting with a minor in Finance, as well as an MBA in Accounting. Currently, I am employed as a forensic accountant, and am pursuing my CPA designation. I love the stock market, and picking stocks. I spend a great deal of time analyzing market data, as well as individual names.

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