Portfolio Update 3/27/10

Before reading, please see the disclaimer in the 'About Me' section.

The Wilshire 5000 closed at 12,133.00, up from 12,058.70 since my post on 3/21/10. The Wilshire 5000 is now 11.36% above it's 200-day moving average, up from 11.31% last Sunday. The Wilshire 5000 reached a level 12.63% above it's 200-day moving average on the 23rd.

The Investor's Intelligence Survey was released on Thursday night. This week's reading was 48.9% BULLS, and 20.5% BEARS, for a spread of 28.4%. This is in comparison to a reading of 46.1% BULLS, and 21.3% BEARS, for a spread of 24.8% on March 16th. Last week was the largest bull reading and spread we had seen since January 19th, and this week has managed to outdo last week yet again.

The Volatility Index closed today at 17.77, up from 16.97 last week. The VIX continues to trade below the 20 mark, and has done so for at least four weeks now.

Now for the portfolio...
1) Verizon at $30.37, down 7.86% for the year.

2) AT&T closed at $26.72, up .11% for the year.

3) GE closed at $18.34, up by 21.98% for the year, including the reinvestment of a dividend in February.

4) TBT, the doubleshort U.S. Treasury ETF closed at $49.24, down by 1.28% since my buy.

5) FXP, the doubleshort China ETF, closed at $8.40, down by 2.55% since my buy.

6) GOOD closed at $14.51, up by 7.53% since my buy, including the reinvestment of a dividend which was received on the 19th that I did not include in last week's update.

7) NLY closed at $17.33, up by 2.08% since my buy.

8) AAPL closed at $230.90, up by 19.17% since my buy.

Overall, the portfolio is up by 9.40% (4.73% for the DOW Dogs, the total DOW has returned 4.05% without dividends, gaining 2.56% just this week), versus 5.53% for the Wilshire 5000. The current basket of eight stocks that I am currently invested in, including dividends, is up 4.85% year-to-date. The spread between my performance and the overall market (Wilshire 5000) has increased to 3.87%, up from 3.85% last week.

As of right now, I have $2,591.60 sitting on the sidelines from my recent sale of Citigroup and United States Steel. The total value of my simulated portfolio is $10,939.71. I am going to let this cash be for the moment.

When I said a few weeks back that I thought the market was overextended, I was not kidding, and I have not changed my mind. As you can see from the data above, the VIX is at a relatively low level, the Wilshire 5000 is well above it's 200-day moving average, and the Investor's Intelligence Survey indicates that the market is getting more and more bullish/complacent. The market cannot go up forever without correcting or consolidating some. It is my belief that money is made over the long run by being the first one in the ocean when the tide is out, and getting out of the ocean as the tide starts to come in. I'm not sure if that analogy works, but you get my point. I have picked out several names which I think are good investments at these levels. If I can get my money in on the long side after the market goes on sale, even better. I have also not ruled out the idea of buying back into Citigroup or United States Steel, depending on what levels they get to if and when we see a pullback/consolidation. Among the other names that I am currently looking out to fill the two open slots in the portfolio are Telecomunicacoes de Sao Paulo (TSP), Montpelier re Holdings (MRH), Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT), and San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT). Some of these names have some pretty hefty dividends. I have yet to decide what I will do, but rest assured it will be published in this space when something is done.